How *do* business people traditionally make decisions?

Kerry (Bodine) said:

hi folks — I need your input.

I have outlined the following four points that convey what “design thinking” entails:

- Start with an understanding of users.
- Imagine what could be.
- Experiment through rapid prototyping.
- Encourage participation.

I’m sure we all have slightly different ideas of what “design thinking”
means and how to define it, and while I’d love to have a huge discussion
about that, I could use your help on one specific point:

I’m struggling with the second bullet. I want to convey how the
creative/generative aspect of design thinking is different from how
businesses traditionally make decisions. I like this quote from Roger
Martin who was paraphrasing Jeanne Liedtka: “Designers may not be able to
prove that something ‘is’ or ‘must be,’ but they nevertheless reason that
it ‘may be.’ This style of thinking is critical to the creative process.”

BUT — I need to contrast this with the ways that businesses traditionally
make decisions. Unfortunately, I lack the business vocabulary to describe
this well and don’t want to come off as either naïve or insulting.

I like the pithy “analyze and decide” from Scott’s pre-conference post,
but this doesn’t really explain the *how* in enough detail. I also don’t
want to get hung up in an academic discussion of
inductive/deductive/abductive reasoning.

Can you help enlighten me, business folks


Hi Kerry,

I don’t know if this answers your questions directly, but I find this
definition a very good starting point when I’m trying to write about
‘design thinking’.

> From Jeffery Pfeffer and Robert Sutton’s new book, Hard Facts,
> Dangerous Half-Truths & Total Nonsense comes this concise
> encapsulation of design thinking,
>
> Design thinking is one of enlightened trial and error wherein one
> observes the world, identifies the patterns of behaviour, generates
> ideas, gets feedback, repeats the process, and keeps on refining.

http://www.nitibhan.com/perspective/2006/04/the_design_thin.html

I’ve tried to articulate this in comparison to ‘the ways that businesses
traditionally make decisions’ per your question below, but that is an
interesting struggle in it’s own right. Here are some snippets of my
attempts, this link is to an attempt to compare the conventional ‘MBA
type’ reasons for a particular strategy - going by the numbers of
consumers (target market size) and their disposable income (potential
revenue opportunities) without considering whether the service offer
(Walmart) is suited to that particular region/market, and whether it
needs to be tweaked for that.

http://www.nitibhan.com/perspective/2006/01/observing_users.html

It’s interesting to note that just in the last week or so, Walmart has
had to withdraw from S. Korea due to their business model, as
transplanted, just not being profitable enough for them to continue
their investment.

In essence, I would say that the second bullet point that you’re looking
at - “imagine what could be” - is essentially a willingness to go with a
roughly formed prototype as an experiment, a pilot study, in order to
see the results, which in turn would allow you to tweak or adjust the
“solution” until you have something that works well enough to generate
the results that you are looking for in that business scenario.

Now that compared to the standard MBA style, of needing numbers, even if
estimated, upto three years in the future, when you are not even sure if
what you have will work. The “Silver Bullet” problem, one could say.

I could be wrong here, and since it’s a particular area of interest for
me, I’d love to read what others have to say.

Best,
niti (Bhan)

Hi Kerry,I think with Liedtka you’re on the right trail; there are many
references available on this topic, but hers is an excellent
introduction to the idea of ‘abductive’ thinking in a business
context. Check out her article in the Rotman Winter ‘03 issue:
http://www.rotman.utoronto.ca/pdf/rotman_mgmt_winter03.pdfI believe those ideas reference James March and his ideas on
abductive thinking
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_MarchThough I missed it, Martin’s talk at the ID conference seemed to
explore the psychology behind the ‘reliability vs. validity’ split
and offered some practical approaches:
http://strategy06.typepad.com/community/2006/05/1050_roger_mart.htmlIncidentally I looked at a lot of the literature last year and tried
synthesizing it into a definition that works for me:
http://noisebetweenstations.com/personal/weblogs/?page_id=1688

Best,

Victor (Lombardi)

> Hi Kerry,
>
> I think of the classic decision-making process as something like:
> - define the objective
> - gather information
> - analyze options
> - select the best one
> - implement it
>
> You might find Roger Martin’s deck from the ID strategy conference
> helpful here, too.
> http://id.iit.edu/events/strategyconference/2006/community/
> presentations/roger_martin.ppt
>
> For me, the key difference between a design approach and a classic
> business approach is that the latter sees the world mostly as
> fixed. The goal is to understand what’s happening in “reality”,
> and generate and choose among options for responding to it. By
> contrast, a design approach tries to construct or shape reality.
> The worldview difference is that a business viewpoint defines a
> situation objectively, from the outside. “The world is out there,
> and we if we can understand it better than a competitor, we can
> respond more appropriately.” A design viewpoint looks at a
> situation subjectively, participating in it from the inside.
> “We’re making the world up by the choices, stories, products, and
> experiences we make. If they are compelling enough, other people
> will want to join in.”
>
> To try to get less academic about that, the implication is that if
> you see the world as mostly fixed, there are a more limited number
> of options to choose among for how best to respond. And so you can
> analyze those against what you know about the world. The big
> challenge is to get good enough data. If you can get the right
> data, you can probably find the “right answer”. But if you think
> you are participating in making the world up as you go, you have
> more possibilities. You can’t weigh them objectively against what
> you know about the world, because the world dynamically responds to
> what you do (as with the Heisenberg uncertainty principle). So the
> only choice is to prototype and respond as you go.
>
> -jz (John Zapolski)

Niti wrote:

Excellent! I really liked this bit, it encapsulates the approach very well :
> But if you think
>> you are participating in making the world up as you go, you have
>> more possibilities. You can’t weigh them objectively against what
>> you know about the world, because the world dynamically responds to
>> what you do (as with the Heisenberg uncertainty principle). So the
>> only choice is to prototype and respond as you go.
And an interesting snippet I came across online a few days ago, which
articulates your concept, in a slightly different manner:” the further away from an event that we begin to see and consider the
possibilities, the more choices we have, and the more we can influence
the outcome. The closer we get, the more the outcome seems to be
inevitable or fated in some way. This can include seeing the decisions
we need to make in advance and giving ourselves as many options as
possible — till the time comes to reduce the options.”You could, in effect, map this on to the product development lifecycle
as well, as after a certain point, the amount of money and time invested
in a particular design direction seems to cut down the number of choices
or options you may have.perhaps that is the key difference between the ‘design’ approach and the
‘business’ approach - business starts with the goal of narrowing down
options and choices while design wants to keep choices as broad as
possible until the answer that works, emerges due to performance ?


Niti Bhan

Michael added:

1. I think this thread should be ported over to the blog, because I
think there’s some useful thinking going on here.2. John, I think, makes an excellent and powerful point, which is a
bit paradoxical (if you accept established norms), but, I think,
nonetheless true. I would recast his point this way (let me know what
you think, John): that the superiority of the design approach is that
it uses both the subjective and the objective to construct a reliable
picture of reality, where as the “classic” approach abstracts,
deductively, from reality, creating a model based solely on “salient”
or relevant data, which is meant to filter “noise” and generate a
reliable and predictive framework. The problem is that this model
works best in situation where either reality is highly stable (high
homogeneity across multiple dimensions) or where the forces in
question have effective control over the relevant dimensions of
reality (closed societies, fascist, totalitarian, Bush’s utopia). Much
less useful in pluralistic, diverse and open societies.3. The other excellent point John makes is that design gives us tools
to intervene in reality: “a design approach tries to construct or
shape reality.” This reminds me of a note I made to myself shortly
before coming out to the Overlap: in answer to the question, How do we
get better reality (with nod to Guy Kawasaki)? We MAKE it better.4. Finally, this all reminds me of Karl Marx’s excellent observation:
“Philosophers have hitherto only interpreted the world in various
ways; the point is to change it.” http://mia.marxists.org/archive/marx/works/1845/theses/index.htm”>Theses
on Fuerbach, Thesis 11. All of which, come to think of it, seem
relevant to our wider discussion.Sorry, for what may be a too academic outpouring. The main point is
that I think design attempts to deal with reality, warts and all,
while the “classic” approach tries to pave over what it either doesn’t
want to pay attention to or be bothered by.

Michael Dila

Kingshuk said:
This is brilliant.
keep talking, guys
:)

Kingshuk Das

Niti again:

Well, how can I resist an invitation like that? :) Anyway, just taking
the thought of ‘design thinking’ further - in that sense of the
‘integrating design’s fuzziness into business’ rigidity’ - it struck me
what I’d noted about a very significant proportion of us at Overlap.

In one form or another, crossing cultures was very much a part of our
individual stories. I came across so many such stories in one weekend as
I usually do in months of meeting people, and these are stories I
collect, about crossing cultures, that I wonder at it’s signficance?

By virtue of the fact that it takes a level of flexibility, observation,
adaptability, rapidly, to cross cultures with a sense of ‘fitting in’
while being in a sense, outside of it, are they not the same qualities
as what would make a ‘design thinker’ or a ‘whole brain’ thinker
different from the left only or right only brain (designer or suit) kind
of thinker?

Niti Bhan

Brad joins in:

Great points, all. Love the insights about passive analysis vs. action for change.
In my experience, all decisions are made on the basis of incomplete, imperfect information — just pick your poison! Classical frameworks from economics and business tend to abstract or remove anything that is not readily, repeatably quantifiable, and therefore are prone to getting a lot of the contextual stuff wrong. Design inferences can tend the opposite direction, and go equally off base, with large hypotheses based on a small number of anecdotal data points. (These are negative extremes, of course, with plenty of positive examples of both methods.)
In the same way that some sales teams do both “bottom-up” (based on current demand) and “top-down” (based on total demand it may be possible to generate) estimates of market size in order to find the most plausible prediction of market potential, perhaps the best approach is to cover as many diverse analytical bases as possible, and to seek a range rather than an “answer”. Nobody really believes the numbers, anyway, and ethnographic conditions on the ground can change quickly, so you’re really just trying to draw the best map you can — as you drive through the fog.
Both qualitative and quantitative perspectives have their merits and weaknesses, but in combination one should be able to get a pretty good sense of risk and opportunity all around.
Brad (Nemer)
Shel says:
Both qualitative and quantitative perspectives have their merits and weaknesses, but in combination one should be able to get a pretty good sense of risk and opportunity all around.
\n\n….\n\nA somewhat practical example of this\nbalance…\n\n\n\nFrom science…\n\nQuantitative change \u003d you can measure the changes\nin the system

\n\nQualitative change \u003d you change the nature\nof the system so things are measured differently (this is a little different\nthan qualitative as subjective)

\n\n

\n\nI read a nice case study from MIT Sloan\nlast month about ‘improvisational change’ – it focused on IT\nchanges.

\n\n

\n\nThe premise was that like an improv jazz\nband works within a somewhat agreed upon scale/key/rhythm framework it also goes\ncompletely outside at unpredictable moments – and can both fail and be\nbrilliant (but the agreed structure at least mitigates the risk)

\n\n

\n\nWhen looking at business – any initiative\nmust be planned and quantitatively, but likewise any number of variables will\nchange throughout the course of production, it is given. (executives leave,\ncompetitors launch new product, shares lose value, a tornado takes out your\nlargest factory, etc.)”,1] ); //–>

….A somewhat practical example of this balance…From science…Quantitative change = you can measure the changes in the systemQualitative change = you change the nature of the system so things are measured differently (this is a little different than qualitative as subjective)

I read a nice case study from MIT Sloan last month about ‘improvisational change’ – it focused on IT changes.

The premise was that like an improv jazz band works within a somewhat agreed upon scale/key/rhythm framework it also goes completely outside at unpredictable moments – and can both fail and be brilliant (but the agreed structure at least mitigates the risk)

When looking at business – any initiative must be planned and quantitatively, but likewise any number of variables will change throughout the course of production, it is given. (executives leave, competitors launch new product, shares lose value, a tornado takes out your largest factory, etc.)

\n\n

\n\nThey proposed a model of change in stages\nthat both honors the original vision but also incorporates feedback (much like\niterative prototyping and participatory design).

\n\n

\n\nWhen launching a new initiative it can be\nexpected that whatever it is you put out there – a new piece of software,\na new space for employees to congregate, a new work flow – will probably\nbe used both as intended, and also in unintended ways.

\n\n

\n\nHow I interpret this (their example was a\nlittle too abstract for me)

\n\n

\n\nYou may give employees a new intranet which\nincludes group/list managers to increase cross function communication – but\ninstead employees use it to schedule ride shares or trade knowledge about baby\nsitters. It is still useful and it still contributes to productivity (via\nquality of life measures) but it didn’t solve the problem it was intended\nto solve – it solved an unknown problem.

\n\n

\n\nAt this point two things should happen. “,1] ); //–>

They proposed a model of change in stages that both honors the original vision but also incorporates feedback (much like iterative prototyping and participatory design).

When launching a new initiative it can be expected that whatever it is you put out there – a new piece of software, a new space for employees to congregate, a new work flow – will probably be used both as intended, and also in unintended ways.

How I interpret this (their example was a little too abstract for me)

You may give employees a new intranet which includes group/list managers to increase cross function communication – but instead employees use it to schedule ride shares or trade knowledge about baby sitters. It is still useful and it still contributes to productivity (via quality of life measures) but it didn’t solve the problem it was intended to solve – it solved an unknown problem.

At this point two things should happen.

  1. Capitalize on the unintended use, don’t try to squash it. Since employees need transportation help make it easier for them so they don’t have to waste time at work trying to figure it out
  2. Keep sight of the original goal (cross functional – work – communication) Since you learned that many employees like to share rides (because you live in an eco-friendly conscientious city, ha!) and you also realize that people talk during long commutes, perhaps this new ride sharing tool you launch works not just on an axis of location but also by discipline.

The whole point is to remember the goal, not invest in a particular solution. The goal can and should be quantitative – you want to increase productivity – and you launch a system to do this. But by being aware of the qualitative nature of any system (i.e. realize that though you provided a solution the nature of things is less predictable) you can change your methods to achieve your original goal. It’s a view that supports numbers and unpredictability, but isn’t so scary to suggest that numbers are irrelevant (because they are very relevant)

./s (shel kimen)

Harry Max writes:

I can provide a solid example from the world of developmental coaching
if appropriate. Let me know if that is too “outside the box”.

..
harry (max)

Shel,

This is going to be brief. However, hopefully it will illuminate the
value of combining both quantitative and qualitative data to get a
more complete picture of ‘reality’ as well as opportunities for
improvement and, in the case of a coaching client, growth.

In my role as a Development Coach (working with creatives/technology
professionals who want to accelerate their growth, etc.), part of my
process often involves a 360 degree review.

A “360,” as they are often referred to, is the process of collecting
information about somebody from their mentors, superiors, peers,
subordinates, et. al., and then analyzing it to get a sense of how the
client is perceived in any number of critical areas.

Quantitative approaches typically rely on standardized surveys. Most
organizations use quantitative approaches because they are efficient,
scalable, and inexpensive. A well-designed and comprehensive
quantitative 360 can provide coverage and inform from 60 to 80% of the
issues a client cares about. As a hypothetical example, a result from
of a quantitative 360 might look something like this:

68% of your peers indicate that you are are effective at communicating
a clear vision of what you thing needs to be done.

The data from a quantitative 360 can be ‘rolled up’ and synthesized to
make inferences that are backed by pseudo hard facts, as it were.

However, quantitative 360s are not good when the categories of growth
can’t be easily predicted. In such cases, I prefer to use a
qualitative 360, which take the form of a custom interview process.
Qualitative 360’s are stunningly good at identifying ‘the story behind
the story’ as Richard Farson might say. Not only can qualitative 360s
provide deep insights, but they, too, can cover about 70 to 80% of the
issues in which a client is interested. However, the information
collected in these types of interviews is extraordinarily difficult to

“,1] ); //–>quantify for any number of reason I don’t have time to go into here.

The results of a qualitative 360, for example, might look something like this:

The people I interviewed agree that “it’s probably clear in [your]
head” but that you just don’t “talk about it.” So critical things are
not said “until the last minute.” And this “leaves people wondering
whether [you have] thought through critical aspects of the situation,
plan, idea, etc.”

As a result, the combination of approaches can yield a powerful,
data-backed description of the current state of a client’s situation,
as well as analytical calibration on the specific issues covered in
the quantitative portion of the 360. By synthesizing the quantitative
and qualitative information, the client can get the deep insights and
then decide not only how relevant but how important a given issue
is…in terms of his or her path forward.

When the approaches are combined, you can see the value through this
hypothetical example:

The people I interviewed agree that “it’s probably clear in [your]
head” but that you just don’t “talk about it.” So critical things are
not said “until the last minute.” And this “leaves people wondering
whether [you have] thought through critical aspects of the situation,
plan, idea, etc.” 90% of your direct supervisors reported this to be a
problem. However, your peers and subordinates reported this to be an
issue less than 10% of the time. The implication is clear. Managing up
is an opportunity that will result in dramatic immediate results…

While there is more to day, I don’t have any more time at the moment.
Let me know if you have any questions. I hope this helps.

..
Best regards, Harry Max

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  17. Как выбрать кальян
    Все кальяны можно разделить на два вида – сувенирные и функциональные.
    Главное, определиться, для какой цели вы приобретаете кальян.

    В свою очередь функциональный кальян может быть как красивым сувениром, так и полноценным инструментом для курения. Качество курения, как мы уже поняли, зависит от высоты кальяна в собранном виде (от высоты колбы, длины шланга, трубки), так как, чем длиннее путь дыма, тем он холоднее. Холодный дым не обжигает и не высушивает дыхательные пути. Второй критерий качества - это материал, из которого сделан кальян. Его верхняя часть изготовляется из латуни, т.к. она хорошо удерживает тепло.

    Сегодня на рынке представлено большое число разнообразных кальянов. В таком разнообразие легко запутаться. Не каждый кальян может оказаться подходящим, по своим характеристикам, качеству исполнения или состоянию для Вас. Несколько рекомендаций по выбору функционального кальяна помогут Вам потратить деньги с умом и получить от этой вещички массу удовольствия. Сувенирный кальян, который по высоте 10-35 см., вы можете выбрать, опираясь исключительно на внешний вид и свой вкус.
    Кальян лучше всего зажигать через пор
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    Характеристики кальяна:

    Чашка

    Это тоже необходимо выбрать:

    Уголь
    Аксессуары

    Колба
    Колбы бывают металлическими, стеклянными (в том числе из богемского стекла и хрусталя), а также пластиковыми. Стеклянные колбы самые распространенные.

    Прозрачное стекло позволяет созерцать красивое зрелище круговорота дыма и пузырей в колбе. Чем выше кальян, тем массивнее должна быть колба дял обеспечения устойчивости. Стекло не должно быть слишком тонким. Обязательно проверьте отсутствие сколов и трещин.
    Кальян нежелательно зажигать с помощью . Это лучше делать спичками.

    Герметичность кальяна
    Все элементы кальяна должны собираться достаточно плотно и без особых усилий, чтобы обеспечить герметичность кальяна. Проверьте герметичность полностью собранного кальяна. Для этого снимите чашку и, плотно заткнув пальцем верхнее отверстие шахты, попытайтесь втянуть воздух через мундштук – воздух не должен втягиваться. Если кальян имеет выпускной клапан, то сразу же проверьте его исправность. Для этого, не снимая руки с шахты, подуйте через мундштук – клапан должен выпустить воздух. Проверьте наличие и качество уплотнителей. Они должны быть эластичными и плотно прилегать к местам уплотнения. Уплотнители должны стоять между шахтой и колбой, между чашкой и шахтой, а также между шлангом и шахтой, но не обязательно – если патрубок сам по себе достаточно герметично вставляется в шахту. Если Вы покупаете отдельные части кальяна – колбу, шахту или шланг, то не забывайте проверять их герметичность.

    На рынке доминируют два марки табака: Nakhla и Al Fakher. Табаки Al Fakher считаются более качественными и стоят дороже. Табак должен быть влажным. Табаки Al Fakher упакованы в вакуумную упаковку – убедитесь в ее целостности. Табаки Nakhla упакованы негерметично, в полиэтиленовую пленку – убедитесь, что табак влажный. Большинство современных табаков обладают различными вкусами и ароматами. Наиболее популярны табаки со вкусом яблока, двойного яблока, винограда, дыни и вишни. Но каждый может выбрать свой любимый вкус. Допускается смешивание разных по вкусу и аромату табаков. Обратите внимание на срок годности табака.

    Качественный кальянный уголь должен отвечать следующим требованиям: хорошо разжигаться и не вносить посторонних запахов в аромат табака, при курении кальяна (при разжигании допускается неприятный запах селитры, который исчезает).

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    Mine
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    Original for those that may not have seen it
    youtube.com/watch?v=0WW8flwpH-Q

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